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The View from Today to 2022:

INDUSTRY

The Top 15 Pharma and Medtechs:Revenue, Rx, R&D Spend and More

EvaluatePharma and EvaluateMedTech do in-depth studies of topics like this, and recently published some that anticipate where various companies will be between now and 2022. We thought it would be interesting to look at these charts—now, and again in the future—and see how accurate the analysis is.

Sources: EvaluatePharma®, Month and Year of data, © Evaluate, and EvaluateMedTech®, Month and Year of data, © Evaluate, www.evaluate.com

Top 15 Companies Ranked on Total Prescription and OTC Pharma Sales

Here you’ll see that, while the leaders are expected to continue growing, and that their Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) will likely increase, they aren’t necessarily expected to gain in market share. In fact, in most cases, share will be flat or decline. This is probably due to the anticipated emergence of competitive companies.

Worldwide Total Prescription & OTC Pharma Sales

There is an interesting contrast here. If you look just at the bars, there seems to be a fairly steady, if modest, growth happening from 2010 until now. But the yellow line tells a different story—that ups and downs have been frequent and significant. Still, Evaluate is very optimistic about the next few years, which they see as experiencing steady and healthy growth.

Top 15 Companies Ranked on 2022 R&D Spend

Although in the top tier R&D spending does seem to bear some relationship to growth and CAGR, among the rest of the list results are very mixed. Pfizer and Merck are not predicted to gain much, but Celgene, GSK and Boehringer Ingleheim are seen as deriving substantial benefits from their research investments

Worldwide Total Prescription and OTC Pharma Sales by Therapy Area

It’s little surprise that the major growth area here is oncology, where much of the R&D is going and much of the return is expected. Systemic anti-infectives, central nervous system medications and anti-diabetics also look like they will experience an upswing, while cardiovascular products may experience a modest comeback after several years of decline.

Top 15 Companies Ranked on Total MedTech Sales

Medtronic is seen as holding its place as the leader of the pack, followed closely by Johnson & Johnson. Phillips and Abbott Labs appear to be poised to gobble up a bigger share than they have today, with the next group (Siemens, Stryker, Roche, BD) maintaining their places without posing much of a threat to the others.

Top 15 Device Areas Ranked on Worldwide Sales

In vitro diagnostics will not only stay in top position but make a great leap in the next few years, closely followed by cardiology. Everyone else, while posting healthy CAGRs, looks to stay pretty much the same with respect to market share.

Top 15 MedTech Companies Ranked on 2022 R&D Spend

Again, Medtronic and J&J are securely in places 1 and 2, but Abbott Labs looks to be making a major investment in medtech in the near future, and is expected to gain both in CAGR and market share as a result.

Top 15 Drugs Ranked on 2022 Worldwide Sales

Finally, Evaluate looks at the individual products that will bring in the greatest revenue from here to 2022. They are dominated by oncologics (Revlimid, Keytruda, Opdivo, Ibrance and others), while HIV meds (Triumeq, Bictegravir) will also be in demand, as will autoimmune treatments (Humira), the pneumococcal medication Prevnar, and others. The only product on the list not aimed at a serious or life-threatening condition is Botox, originally prescribed for migraines but now largely used to erase facial lines and crows feet.

What do you think?

Written by hsandm

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